Some quarters are being too snobbish in dismissing as a light ticket the administration party’s team-up of Defense Secretary Gibo Teodoro and Interior and Local Government Secretary Ronnie Puno, given the current, recognition of the Noynoy Aquino-Mar Roxas tandem.

Those well informed about Philippine electoral politics know that under the present political landscape and dynamics, the Gibo-Ronnie ticket is basically the team to beat.

Opposition Senator Jinggoy Estrada himself claimed that Ronnie Puno alone is a formidable candidate as VP.

Demographics is also leaned in favor of the administration ticket.

In her column in Malaya Business insight, Ms. Ellen Tordesillas wrote that’political advisor Malou Tiquia, in a presentation on’Developments in the 2010 election campaign’ in a forum backed by the Ateneo college of Government, expounded that of the 45,029,443 registered voters as of March 2009, nine million belong to age 18-35 years old.

Election observers expect 22% of citizens would come from the youth sector.

‘If these young folk would identify with someone in their age range, they’d have 3 to pick from,’ Tiquia said, specifically : Teodoro, Chiz Escudero of the National people’s Coalition, who will be turning forty ( the minimum age obligation to be president ) on October 10 ; and the Liberal Party’s Noynoy Aquino.

as significantly, Tiquia spotted that’the past three countrywide elections showed a median of 74.25 voters turnout.

That would imply about thirty three million out of the nearly 46 million registered voters….To win in a contest of 4 or 5 presidential applicants, the winner should get at least thirty percent of the votes or 10 million votes.’

Because surveys show that even with all the mud thrown at President Arroyo, she still has a solid 25% support ( or approval rating ) among Filipinos, that would transpose into about 8.25 million voters going to the anointed bets of President Arroyo.

the rest of those dissatisfied with the President, which number around 45% would vote for the other opposition bets-meaning that the likes of Noynoy, Erap and Chiz would have to fight over this 45%. The 30% who are uncertain could go either way.

This eventuality actually gives the Gibo-Ronnie team a lead because even without doing anything they’re already guaranteed of 8.25 million of the 10,000,000 votes or so needed to win in 2010, by being identified with President Arroyo.

This prognosis is buttressed by Tiquia’s observation that in 1992, Fidel Ramos won with only 5,342,321 votes ( 16.62% of total registered electorate ) over Miriam Santiago who got 4,468,133.

She likewise observed that Arroyo was announced after being credited with 12,905,808 votes ( 29.64 % ) over Fernando Poe Jr.’s 11,782, 232 votes.

Remember that FVR run in an overcrowded field that encompassed Santiago, Danding Cojuangco, Ramon Mitra, Imelda Marcos, Jovito Salonga and Salvador Laurel, each of them separately running, respectively, under the People’s Reform Party, the Nationalist folks’s Coalition, Laban ng Demokratikong Pilipino, Kilusang Bagong Lipunan, Liberal Party-PDP Laban, and the Nacionalista Party.

In 2004, Arroyo’s rivals besides FPJ were Ping Lacson of the LDP-Aquino Wing, Raul Roco of the Alyansang Pag-asa/Aksyon Demokratiko, and Eduardo Villanueva of the Bangon Pilipinas.

therefore in a field of four or 5 major presidential aspirants, it doesn’t take an overpowering majority to win the elections.

plus the Gibo-Ronnie tandem is warranted of some 8 million votes at the beginning of the race by just being recommended by President Arroyo.

This, together with the administration party’s well-oiled political machinery reaching down to the grassroots level and the candidates’ qualifications, is the clear edge of the Gilbert Teodoro-Ronnie Puno tandem.